Bad News About Potential Anti-Body Tests For Coronavirus

From CNN.com -

In a phone call last week, some of the nation's top scientists briefed White House officials about antibody testing, according to two doctors who were on the call.

Much of the news wasn't very good.

Antibody tests check to see if a person has previously been infected with Covid-19, an indication that they've had the virus and now could be immune to it.

Dr. Deborah Birx, the coordinator of the White House coronavirus task force, has called such tests "critical."

The test can help determine if someone is immune to coronavirus, "and that's going to be important when you think about getting people back into the workplace," according to Dr. Anthony Fauci, a member of the task force.

"The antibody test says you were infected and if you're feeling well, you've very likely recovered," Fauci said. "As we look forward, as we get to the point of at least considering opening up the country as it were, it's very important to appreciate and to understand how much that virus has penetrated society."

Trump administration officials have promised that antibody tests are on their way.

"We have made great progress with the antibody testing, fantastic progress," Trump said at a media briefing April 5. 

Five days later, Vice President Mike Pence said at a media briefing that "very soon we will have an antibody test that Americans will be able to take to determine whether they ever had the coronavirus."

But on the April 6 phone call, members of the National Academy of Sciences' Standing Committee on Emerging Infectious Diseases and 21st Century Health Threats told members of the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy there are issues with the availability and reliability of the antibody tests in the United States right now.

"In three words: Work in progress," said Dr. David Relman, a member of the National Academy of Sciences committee who was on the call.

There are several layers of issues with the antibody tests.

First, the US Food and Drug Administration relaxed its rules, and now companies can sell antibody tests without submitting validation data that shows they actually work. 

The American Public Health Lab Association says that has resulted in "crappy" tests flooding the market.

"It's like the wild, wild West out there -- or wild East," said association CEO Scott Becker, a reference to the fact that at least half the companies making these tests are in China.

Becker said that in conference call Tuesday that FDA Commissioner Dr. Stephen Hahn said antibody tests would undergo scientific review by the National Cancer Institute.

There has been concern that some of the tests might confuse the coronavirus causing the current pandemic with one of several coronaviruses that cause the common cold.

"Lots of tests confuse the two," Relman said.

The tests would then end up telling people they had antibodies to the pandemic coronavirus when they didn't, and people might think they're immune when they're not.

A few days after the phone call, the NAS scientists wrote a letter to the White House frankly apprising them about the quality of antibody tests.

Results from antibody tests "should be viewed as suspect until rigorous controls are performed and performance characteristics described, as antibody detection methods can vary considerably, and most so far have not described well-standardized controls," according to the letter.

Second, there are good tests in the midst of the bad ones, but they're not yet widely and easily available throughout the country.

Third, it's not entirely clear that having antibodies to Covid-19 means that you truly have immunity and won't get the disease again.

"That's the $64 question," said Dr. Harvey Fineberg, chairman of the NAS committee, who was also on the phone call with the White House. "Does antibody level equate to resistance to getting ill again?"

The White House Office of Science and Technology Policy did not respond to requests from CNN to describe what it learned on the April 6 call or how officials plan to use the information the scientists gave them.

Fineberg said he felt that the White House officials paid close attention on the call.

"That's the brilliance of Kelvin Droegemeier, to elicit this kind of input and turn to the academics in the first place," Fineberg said, referring to the director of the White House policy office. "They're genuinely trying to widen their aperture for advice, and I think so far it's working."

"To see this kind of engagement is very heartening," Relman added. "Does it lead to useful consequences? Does it have an impact? Does the scientific engagement end up informing policy? For that I think we have to hope and wait and see."

Fineberg added that antibody tests are important on a national scale, to gauge what proportion of the population might be immune, but also on a personal level.

"Everybody wants to know -- am I immune? Can I now visit Grandma so that I'm not a threat to her and she's not a threat to me?" he said. "How do we discern the people who can now safely go out and about? That's an important personal and social question." 

CNN's Minali Nigam, Devon Sayers and Julie In contributed to this report

WorldMeter CoronaVirus Tracking

This link provides the most accurate, up-to-the-minute stats on Covid-19, as well as local resources available in your neighborhood:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ 

It's worth your time to take a few minutes to get the latest information on this tragic pandemic.

Be safe.  Self-isolate/Quarantine. 

Here's a timeline of the comments from Donald Trump and his administration:

Feb. 24, 2020: White House trade adviser Peter Navarro publicly said Americans had "nothing to worry about" while he privately warned the White House that the coronavirus pandemic could cost trillions of dollars and hundreds of thousands of American lives.

"Since the day that President Trump pulled down the flights from China to the US, he has been actively leading the situation in terms of this crisis with the task force," Navarro said in a press statement outside the White House. "Nothing to worry about for the American people."

What happened that day: The White House requested $1.25 billion in emergency funding to address coronavirus as cases surged in Italy and Iran.

 

Feb. 25, 2020: White House National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow said in an interview on CNBC that the US had coronavirus "contained" and it was "pretty close to airtight." Kudlow added the coronavirus was a "human tragedy," but "I don't think it's going to be an economic tragedy at all." He added that investors should "very seriously" look at purchasing stocks after they decline in value.

What happened that day: The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost almost 900 points, marking a total loss of about 2,267 through four days.

 

Feb. 25, 2020: Speaking on Fox Business, then-Trump campaign spokeswoman and current White House press secretary Kayleigh McEnany said because of travel policies enacted by the President, the coronavirus would not continue to come to the United States.

"This President will always put America first," she said. "He will always protect American citizens. We will not see diseases like the coronavirus come here. We will not see terrorism come here. And isn't that refreshing when contrasting it with the awful presidency of President Obama?"

What happened that day: The US confirmed 53 confirmed cases of coronavirus as a top CDC official warned there would be "community spread" in the US, adding it was "a question of exactly when this will happen and how many people in this country will have severe illness."

 

Feb. 26, 2020: McEnany, then serving as a Trump campaign spokeswoman, told Fox Business that the virus had "not in the slightest" chance of affecting the President's re-election campaign and praised the President for having the crisis under control.

"The President has this under control, and America will see that -- just like with every single international incident -- he knows what he's doing," she said.

What happened that day: Trump shook up his coronavirus task force team by appointing Vice President Mike Pence as its leader after privately expressing frustration with Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar, according to administration sources. Azar told the press that the coronavirus posed a "low" immediate risk but noted "we can expect to see more cases in the United States."

 

Feb. 26, 2020: Lotter said in a radio interview that the stock market fallout from the coronavirus would recover quickly, comparing the market recovery to the Ebola and SARS outbreaks.

"Even with this dip in the stock market, when we went through the Ebola scares and the SARS scares from many years ago, the stock market drops 20 percent and then quickly rebounded. Well, right now after the last few days, we're at 8 percent. So we're not on anything along those lines," said Lotter. "And I'm confident and I've even, you know, already started to hear experts saying buy the dip, buy the dip. And I have a feeling you'll see a lot of that starting to happen here in the coming weeks. And as this situation plays itself out, that we'll see, that we'll see the markets quickly recover."

What happened that day: The Dow and the S&P 500 declined for the fifth day in a row with the Dow having lost nearly 2,400 points in a little less than a week, according to a report from CNN Business.

 

Feb 28, 2020: Kudlow told CPAC attendees that the coronavirus said that socialism, not the coronavirus, would sink the US economy, saying Trump took "unprecedented and historical steps to contain the virus."

"The virus is not going to sink the American economy," Kudlow said. "What is or could sink the American economy is the socialism coming from our friends on the other side of the aisle."

"And when you look at the numbers so far, God bless, we don't know what's ahead of us. The numbers so far are very low. We're in good shape," said Kudlow earlier.

What happened that day: Bill Gates penned an op-ed calling the coronavirus could be "once-in-century pandemic."

 

Feb. 28, 2020: Grogan appeared on a conservative podcast and claimed the United States was "way ahead of the rest of the world" on coronavirus. He noted the coronavirus caused "a temporary blip in the markets" and that "we will get through it. It will be fine."

"We are hustling on this. We are way ahead of the rest of the world. We have the best healthcare system, the best public health system in the world, and the best scientists working on this," said Grogan. "We will get through it. It will be fine. And this is just a temporary blip in the markets...We have an incredibly resilient economy."

What happened that day: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell wrote in a rare statement that while the fundamentals of the US economy are strong, the coronavirus "poses evolving risks to economic activity." Trump expressed support for the Fed to "get involved" by slashing interest rates.

 

Feb. 28, 2020: Mulvaney was interviewed at CPAC and accused the media of covering the coronavirus so much because "they think this is going to be what brings down the President."

"The reason you're paying so much attention to it today is that they think this is going to be what brings down the President. That's what this is all about," said Mulvaney.

Mulvaney went on to acknowledge that the coronavirus "absolutely is real," but stressed that "This is not Ebola, OK? ... It's not SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome), it's not MERS (Middle East Respiratory Syndrome)."

What happened that day: After coming into contact with one CPAC attendee who later tested positive for the coronavirus, a host of Republican lawmakers would self-quarantine for 14 days.

 

Feb. 28, 2020: Republican National Committee Chair Ronna McDaniel blamed prominent Democrats for tanking the stock market and accused them of stoking fears of coronavirus for political purposes in a radio interview.

"I think it's a short bump. I think having Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer and (New York Mayor Bill) de Blasio yesterday trying to stoke fears for political purposes, we don't have many cases here in the United States," McDaniel said.

"But I do think that they are using this as a political tactic and we're seeing that affect the markets. And it will even out," she said, later adding "Long term, as an investor, I think we're going to be fine."

What happened that day: The US confirmed its 60th case of coronavirus and medical officials in California said one case indication there is evidence of community transmission.

 

March 2, 2020: Murtaugh said in a radio interview that the US is in better shape to tackle the coronavirus than other countries such as China, Italy and Iran. He noted "the risk to the general population is extraordinarily low."

"People are rightfully a little bit nervous about this. It's an unknown sort of virus that's on the scene, and they need to know that the government is taking care of it," said Murtaugh. "The government is taking all measures to protect them. The United States is in a far better position than these foreign countries. You hear about China and Italy and certainly Iran.

"I think people can rest easy that the risk to the general population is extraordinarily low," added Murtaugh.

What happened that day: The US surpassed 100 confirmed cases, according to a CNN tally, as Trump weighed more travel restrictions.

 

March 3, 2020: Lotter said in a radio interview the risk to the average American was very low. "You saw the Vice President standing in the White House briefing room with the head of the CDC, with the Secretary of Health and Human Services answering questions from the White House media corps," Lotter said. "Reassuring the American people that you should go out and live your life. The risk to the average American is very low from this and the government is responding accordingly. They're taking the necessary steps to make sure that everyone is protected and that the information gets out there."

What happened that day: A man in Westchester County, New York tests positive, suggesting there was localized spread. An estimated 1,000 people would eventually end up quarantined.

 

March 6, 2020: Senior Counselor to the President Kellyanne Conway got into a heated exchange with a reporter saying the coronavirus was contained.

"It is being contained and -- do you not think it's being contained in this country," Conway said in the White House briefing room. "You said it's not being contained ... You just said something that's not true."

What happened that day: The coronavirus death toll in Washington state rose to 14.

 

March 6, 2020: Kudlow tells CNBC in an interview that Americans should still buy the dip and the virus is contained, at one point comparing it to the seasonal flu.

"So far, It looks relatively contained and we don't think most people -- I mean the vast majority of Americans are not at risk for this virus," Kudlow said.

What happened that day: There were now 227 confirmed cases of the coronavirus in the US per a CNN tally.

 

March 6, 2020: Murtaugh says the press is being "sensational" about coronavirus and said Trump was "ahead of the curve" on coronavirus, adding that most of the media was "rooting" for the stock market to tank.

"I think the President has made it pretty clear that he is, he moved faster than the other countries did. He's got the United States ahead of the curve," he said in a radio interview.

What happened that day: 44 people in New York state were confirmed to have coronavirus.

 

March 9, 2020: Murtaugh says that Trump was "way ahead of the curve" in recognizing and reacting to the virus in a radio interview.

"The President appointed a task force to look at it and go after the coronavirus on January 31. That was a long time ago. That was well before any of this hysteria really got started. And in fact that was 12 days before the World Health Organization even gave the virus a name. So the President was way ahead of the curve and against political advice."

"The fact is the President is on top of the situation," he added. "The fundamentals of the economy are broad and strong and that we're going to be just fine."

What happened that day: North Carolina Rep. Mark Meadows, Trump's incoming chief of staff, goes into self-quarantine as a protective measure, after potentially coming into contact with a CPAC attendee who tested positive for Covid-19. The Dow Jones had its worst point drop on record, falling more than 2,000 points, or 7.8%, the worst day on record since the 2008 financial crisis.

 

March 10, 2020: McEnany says in a radio interview that the President is advising people to wash their hands and maintain good hygiene to combat the virus, and that "this is something that is under control."

"We're just taking the same common sense measures that the President has instructed America to take. Look this, obviously you want to take seriously. Good hygiene habits, washing your hands and making sure not to touch a doorknob and then touch your eye. But, you know, outside of those common sense measures, this is something that is under control."

What happened that day: The 22nd person dies in King County, Washington, an early hotspot of the virus in America, as the total US death toll reaches 29.

 

March 11, 2020: McEnany said in a radio interview that Democrats were just focusing on the coronavirus because impeachment was over, and that Trump stopped it from being worse than it could have been:

"We knew when impeachment was over, they'd find something else to glom onto. This President's taken unprecedented action to protect this country from the coronavirus. He stopped it from being so much worse than it could have been, but leave it to the media, and to the left to score cheap political points."

In another interview on a radio show, McEnany said that it wasn't irresponsible to continue to hold rallies and events:

"I'd say that the President says this is safe. Dr Fauci has said, you know, it depends on the location. As long as you're not having it in a hot spot where there's a big outbreak, like outside of New York for instance, then it's safe to proceed. So, you know, as long as the experts say it continues to be safe, then we follow that lead that; we will proceed as normal. And you'll take precautions as I said, but not panic because we have a president leading on this."

Note: Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, actually disagreed with Trump and said he recommended against events with large crowds.

What happened that day: The number of people testing positive for the coronavirus in the US reached 1,000 and the American death toll rose to 31. The global death toll surpassed 4,200. The NBA announced that all games would be suspended until further notice. An employee in Washington Democratic Sen. Maria Cantwell's office becomes the first publicly known case of a congressional staffer testing positive for coronavirus and Trump suspended most travel to Europe.

Quaranteaming

It sounds cute, sort of.  But, hold up a minute here.  It started as a way to self-isolate, but, with another person, thus “teaming”.  The thought behind it being, ‘if we both have to stay home and quarantine ourselves, why not do it together’?

Again, almost sounds like a good idea… however, consider this.  That means the two of you can never go out alone, must stay together 24/7 (just like a married couple), pretty much do everything together.  The second you separate, and don’t do things together, but rather apart, that’s when you set yourself up to come in contact with an outside party.

Is that so bad?  Y-E-S!!  Why? (Because I know you’re thinking that.)  Think of it like another very well known virus, HIV.  Sounds extreme, and it IS.  HIV is transmitted by unprotected sexual contact in the semen.  We know that using condoms dramatically reduces the chances of contracting it. In the same way that HIV changes with each new infected person, the coronavirus adapts to new "hosts" (people) as well.  An antibody test is a very good start.  Many, many more coronavirus tests are likewise a good start, but ultimately, a vaccine is what we need and that is still 12 to 18 months away, putting us well into 2021, closing in on 2022.

Guess what?  The protection, or condom, in this case in regards to the coronavirus, is that face mask.  So, where are we going with this?  I’m glad you asked.

In the same way that condoms and fewer sexual partners reduce that chances of one contracting HIV, that face mask is your protection against potentially contracting the coronavirus, and further, limiting people with whom you spend time quaranteaming, if that’s your choice, you lower your risks of getting it.

And to be clear, no, I wouldn’t start calling your mask a face condom.  That just sounds wrong, and not a pretty image you want floating around in your noodle.

I guess if you are someone that easily feels isolated/alone, then maybe that’s a good choice, but, keep in mind, it IS a commitment, potentially for several months.  It sounds great, and I get that you don’t like being alone at home.  That’s a tough one, for sure.  Maybe getting tested for the coronavirus first, to make sure you’re both negative?

My only concern would be what it does to your friendship during the quarantine.  Could potentially be a friendship killer, and I don’t know that ground rules would help much, if at all.

Since you have to be at home anyway, what about:

• Catching up on reading
• Binge watching those TV shows you’ve missed because you don’t own a DVR
• Journal writing
• Learning a new musical instrument (Guitars are a great one to start with)
• Jigsaw puzzles
• Word Search puzzles, crossword puzzles
• Sewing
• Meditation
• Yoga

… and on and on, ad infinitum.

... and now, a moment of calm.

Pretty easy to see why FLOTUS, Melania Trump, has the hots for this guy:

Canadian Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau

He's younger, hotter, and well, he's NOT her daddy, Donald Trump.

Hey, remember that time, they had a "moment"?